Gubernatorial Primary Analysis

Now that we are a week removed from the conclusion of the 2010 primary races we can look back at the results with a little bit more of a clear head. We will be less likely to let emotion and irrationality dictate the conclusions that we can draw from the results. We can also provide some advice for former Governor Branstad in his quest to reunite the Republican Party in Iowa. Also looking at some of the data presented to us from the primary we can recognize some trends that must be acknowledged in order for the party to move forward to challenge Culver in November.

The result of the Governor’s race primary was much closer than those polling the race claimed. If you will remember many of the pollsters had former Governor Branstad winning the race by more than 20%. Well, I guess Vander Plaats managed to surprise them. Now let’s look at the vote numbers from the race as posted on the Iowa Secretary of State website here.

As you can see, while former Governor Branstad did manage to defeat his opponents, it was not by the large margin the pollsters predicted. In fact, almost half of the voters in the Republican primary voters voted for a candidate other than Terry Branstad. Now shall we look at the amount of campaign funds spent during the primary by each candidate followed by a breakdown of cost per vote.

As you can see, Team Vander Plaats has nothing to be ashamed of. Despite being outspent they managed to pull down about 41% of the vote. At the same time, Team Branstad should be a tad bit worried. The Branstad campaign was outworked by the Vander Plaats campaign. The obvious conclusion that can be drawn from this data is that if had not been for Branstad’s superior war chest there is a great possibility that he may not have won this race.

Another obvious conclusion to be drawn from this information is the clear division within the Republican base. The primary winner barely pulled down half of the primary voters. This indicates to me at least that the Republican base is not happy with the chosen nominee. It now falls upon Branstad to attempt to heal this divide because if he wants to defeat Culver he must win over the one hundred thousand voters that rejected him in the primary. He must tread carefully because any misstep in this process could quite possibly alienate these voters even further.

I really don’t know what it would take to win these voters over, but I can tell you what won’t. First and foremost, Branstad must attempt to distance himself from Doug Gross. Many of the voters that rejected Branstad do not really like Gross’ condescending manner, nor the constant ridicule he continues to pour upon them. Branstad must also admonish his supporters that continue to rub the salt in the open wounds left from the primary battle. If you were to check the comments on The Iowa Republican you would find scores of Branstad supporters belittling and ridiculing Vander Plaats supporters. All of these factors are building together to present former Governor Branstad with the virtually impossible task of reuniting the Republican base in order to defeat Culver in November.