Can a 3rd Party Candidate Win the Governor’s Race?

Can a third party or independent candidate for statewide office actually win an election? This is a question I have been mulling over since the end of the primary almost one month ago. For most election cycles I would answer no, that the two major political parties have too strong of a stranglehold on the electoral system. That is they are too entrenched to effectively oust their dominance at the ballot box. Usually the best that a third party candidate can hope for is to influence the debate during the campaign by siphoning enough votes for the major party candidates to be threatened. However this year there seems to be some factors in play that may benefit the independent candidates over the established parties.

One of the biggest themes that we have seen so far this year is the overwhelming anti-incumbent sentiment sweeping the country. With our countries debt climbing at an astronomical rate, many people are associating it with the politicians that are currently in office. And while this sentiment has yet to make a major appearance in Iowa, it is simmering on the burner waiting for the right moment to boil over and take Chet Culver with it.

This should make it a cakewalk for Branstad to win the election. And under normal circumstances I would agree with that statement. However this year’s Republican primary race was particularly brutal. It was so brutal that the wounds, which would normally be healed by the time of the State Convention, have yet to heal. The sad truth is that when it comes to the gubernatorial race the Republican Party is deeply divided. Many supporters of Branstad’s opponent have openly stated that they can no longer sacrifice their principles for the sake of the party. They have vowed to either sit home on election night or they plan on voting for a third party candidate. To top it off former Governor Branstad has failed to meaningfully reach out to his opponents supporters to entice them to work toward his victory.

This year has also rewarded voters with a stellar field of independent candidates. A few months ago Libertarian candidate Eric Cooper wowed an assembled crowd at the Iowan’s for Tax Relief candidate forum in Des Moines with his bold stance on the fiscal issues that they hold dear. While he doesn’t have the name recognition of the other candidates in the race I believe that if he were to be included in any televised debates would increase is standing tremendously due to his spectacular oratorical skills.

The other wild card in this race is former Des Moines Public School Board member Jonathon Narcisse. Narcisse’s claim to fame is his trademark release of records illustrating just how bad the Des Moines School District was failing its students. Narcisse also spoke to the assembled mass at the ITR forum where he wowed the crowd with his knowledge of a wide variety of economic issues. Perhaps coupling his name recognition with his frank and outspoken nature Narcisse could garner enough votes in the general election to go home the victor.

While a victory from a third party candidate can still be considered a long shot, the pieces are in place that could result in a massive upset. All it will take is for Branstad and Culver to pound on each other while ignoring Narcisse and Cooper. However you look at it the potential exists for a third party victory in the general election.