Straw Poll Predictions

While I may have been notably absent from the political blogosphere for the last few months I have not neglected to attend the variety of political events that have occurred in the run up to 2011 Republican Party of Iowa Ames Straw Poll. As the summer progressed the candidates vying for the Republican nomination to challenge President Obama have been making the rounds of Iowa in a determined attempt to drum up support for their candidacy.

Unlike four years ago when I attended my first Straw Poll, I am not going in with a candidate already selected. Instead I find myself in the curious position of neutrality toward the candidates. In my honest opinion all of the candidates scheduled to be in attendance have some great attributes in their favor. At the same time they all have some negatives working against them as well. So this year I will walk into the Ames Straw Poll having to as yet make a decision as to who I intend to support. That doesn’t mean that I do not have an opinion as to how each of the candidates will perform once the ballots are tallied. And now without further ado, here are my predictions as to how the poll will shake out.

I believe that Minnesota Congresswoman Michelle Bachmann will the one candidate that will come out on top on Saturday. I have attended her events and seen an excitement amongst her supporters that I haven’t seen since Mike Huckabee last campaigned in Iowa prior to the 2008 Iowa Caucus. And while Congresswoman Bachmann does have some baggage I do not believe that it will be enough to hold her back.

I firmly believe that Congressman Ron Paul will come in a close second. Congressman Paul was right on almost every count on America’s fiscal policy 4 years ago and that has won him increasing support. However he has several issues that will draw down his potential support. Among them is his continued policy of inserting pork into bills even though he votes against them. Another significant negative that I believe is keeping him from winning the number 1 spot at the Straw Poll is his fanatical fringe of supporters. These are the supporters that are willing to get into your face and shout you down as you attempt to politely debate them on the issues. I saw this fanatical fringe first hand at the 2008 Straw Poll when several of the fringe lined the entry way to the event. One of the fringe got in the face of one of my companions despite being politely rebuked. If Congressman Paul were to somehow manage to gain control of these dedicate, if somewhat socially challenged individuals I believe that he may have had a stronger shot at winning the poll.

Now I am going to surprise some people with my next prediction. In third place I don’t see what some others see. I don’t see former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty drawing enough votes to take third. I don’t see the defending Straw Poll winner, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney pulling it off either. Instead I see a surprise in the wings much along the same line as Governor Huckabee’s surprising win four years ago. I am going out on a limb to predict that former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum will pull of a third place finish on Saturday. Despite the media’s tacit dismissal of Senator Santorum’s presidential campaign he has steadily built upon his solid social conservative credentials and his lengthy track record in the US Senate to build a support base in much the same way that Governor Huckabee did. He hasn’t done it by taking part in a lot of GOP party fundraisers. Instead he has traveled across the state going from one house party to another speaking directly to the voters in Iowa. While he does have the albatross of losing his seat in the US Senate, I don’t think that it will hold him back all that much.

Predicting the candidate that will come in fourth place on Saturday was really the toughest prediction that I have made thus far. This really was a toss up between two candidates in my honest opinion. This slot could have gone to either defending Straw Poll winner Mitt Romney or former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty. After careful consideration I came to the prediction that Governor Pawlenty would be the one to take fourth place. The major difference here is that Governor Pawlenty has been tirelessly crisscrossing the state in a concerted attempt to win the support of Iowan’s. Despite his relentless campaigning I don’t believe that he will be able to inspire enough support for him to place higher in the Straw Poll.

As I am sure that you can surmise, I believe that Mitt Romney will come in fifth in Saturday’s Straw Poll. It is not that I believe that he could not do better than this. It is more that I believe that most Iowan’s attending Saturday’s event will take offense to the fact that Romney has not really campaigned in Iowa this time around. Furthermore there are a large number of Iowa Republicans that will not vote for Mitt Romney under any circumstances. So this coupled with his lack of a campaign presence in Iowa will hinder his chances this weekend.

In my honest opinion positions six through nine are too fluid to really predict. However with that said, anyone of these candidates could provide a surprise on Saturday. For instance former Godfathers Pizza CEO Hermann Cain’s campaign started out with a bang. He picked up rapid support due to his status as the outsider, the non-politician candidate. However his campaign quickly lost steam when it began to hemorrhage staffers. Today Cain’s campaign is just a shell of its former self. Another candidate that held promise early in the campaign season was former Speaker of the US House of Representatives Newt Gingrich. However after some of his staff left over differences in opinion on campaign strategy the Gingrich campaign quickly lost steam. Michigan Congressman Thadeus McCotter will be a non-entity on Saturday due to the fact that he really hasn’t been campaigning. No one in Iowa really knows much about him and I don’t believe that he will have the time to rectify this problem. Another candidate that I believe will be a non-entity at the Straw Poll will be Jon Huntsman due to the fact that he has decided to bypass Iowa.

With a few days remaining until the Iowa Straw Poll the political situation is volatile. Anyone of these candidates can break their campaign with some entirely avoidable gaffe. And at the same time a candidate has the ability to elevate their status through some shrewd and effective campaign strategy. Essentially, until the ballots are cast on Saturday the outcome of the Straw Poll is entirely fluid. But it is fun to make predictions isn’t it.