The Thanksgiving Forum Recap

November 20, 2011 Leave a comment

The 2012 Presidential race has been billed as one the most important election cycles in recent history. And perhaps due to this prophetic proclamation it seems that the number of debates hosted around the country has increased dramatically. That would not be a bad thing if the debates that we being conducted were anything more that soundbite machines hosted by moderators that seem to want to turn the candidates on each other in some sort of political version of the a battle royal. That is why yesterday evenings Thanksgiving Family Forum hosted by The Family Leader was so refreshing. The basic rules of the evening were crafted so that the candidates could not only answer questions, but answer them in depth so as to allow the audience to really understand how the candidate reached the conclusion that they did. For those of you that were unable to attend you can view the forum in its entirety at this link.

Now I could give you a complete rundown of everything that happened during the two hour long forum, but due to time and space constraints I will simply break it down in to how I believe each participant performed.

Texas Congressman Ron Paul

In my opinion Congressman Paul started the evening out with a whimper. In his response to the very first question Congressman Paul was all over the place, but not with any comment of any consequence. And despite his longwinded answer he still provided an answer that did not satisfactorily answer the question. This appearance really hit the bottom during the second half of the program where he really let the naivety of his foreign policy stance show through.

Georgia Businessman Herman Cain

Last night we had another appearance by Mr. Cain in which there were times that he looked absolutely amazing, and then other times when he left you scratching your head in wonder. One of the times where Mr. Cain really shined was when the question revolved around the phrase “So help me God” in the Presidential oath of office. Mr. correctly asserts that when that phrase is uttered in the oath that the person is asking for God’s help in fulfilling the duties of the office in question. When the candidates were asked about the sanctity of life his answers seemed intentionally vague and evasive; and gave the audience the impression that he will not fight for life as hard as some of the other candidates would.

Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachman

I have to admit that this was one of the best performances I have seen from Congresswoman Bachmann for some time. During this forum the Congresswoman does have at least a rudimentary knowledge of American History. She demonstrated this by correctly recited the fact that it was the first President of the United States, George Washington, that was so instrumental in having that short little phrase included in the oath of office. In my opinion I really did not see the Congresswoman make any fatal mistakes last night.

Texas Governor Rick Perry

After having endured the painful experience of watching Governor Perry take part in the last several debates I was prepared for the dreadful nails on a chalkboard effect that his appearance would create. To say that I was surprised by his extremely competent performance would be an understatement. Whenever he happened to field a question the answer seemed to be directed at the audience. It was like he was just having a conversation with us, not the moderator. Not only did he do a good job speaking to the audience, he responded with well thought out remarks that demonstrated that he is not a light thinker.

Former Speaker of the US House of Representatives Newt Gingrich

If only one candidate can be said to have had a huge night, that candidate is Newt Gingrich. The former speaker’s wit and wisdom were on display for all to see last night. He repeatedly answered the questions posed to him with reason and knowledge. He really did not have any misstep for anyone to attack him on. Among the most memorable lines of the night was this gem describing the occupy movement.

“All the occupy movement starts with the premise that we all owe them everything. They take over a public park that they didn’t pay for, to go nearby to use bathrooms that they didn’t pay for, to beg for food from places that they don’t want to pay for, to obstruct those that are going to work to pay the taxes that sustain the bathrooms that sustain the park so that they can self righteously proclaim that they are the paragons of virtue to which we owe everything. Now that is a pretty good symptom of how much the left has collapsed as a moral system in this country. That is why we need to reassert something as simple as saying to them go get a job right after you take a bath.”

Former Senator Rick Santorum

This was yet another strong performance from the former Senator from Pennsylvania. He delivered strong and rational arguments supporting his beliefs and his positions. He was able to articulate clear and concise reasons for denying the nation of Iran the ability to produce a nuclear weapon. He delivered a powerful piece of testimony illustrating for all to see that even though he is a candidate for the Presidency of the United States, he is really just a flawed human being like the rest of humanity. As he was confessing this past mistake for all the world to see you could see that reliving that period of his life was just as hard now as it had been then.

Everyone at The Family Leader deserves a hearty round of applause for the outstanding event that they had put together. I would not hesitate to state that this type of format will definitely be copied and utilized in the future. As promised, last night’s forum allowed those in attendance to learn more about the candidates and what made them tick than in any of the other debates or forums combined. All in all, a great event.

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Stewart Park Squatters Demand Wellmark Change It’s Business Model

November 12, 2011 4 Comments

The complete and utter ignorance of the protesters taking part in Occupy Des Moines never ceases to amaze me. We have seen the protesters from Occupy Des Moines take a foolhardy and provocative stance that led to the arrest of more than 30 of the protesters. We have seen many of the so-called protesters continue to insist beyond any and all rational reasoning that the 1st Amendment allows their little squatters camp to violate the law. But the latest out of the Stewart’s Park Squatters Camp really takes the cake.

According to this story in the Des Moines Register, about a dozen of the squatters tore themselves away from their dingy little tents to march on one of Iowa’s largest and most respected employers. In their sights this time was Wellmark Blue Cross Blue Shield. The dirty dozen delivered their brazen demand that Wellmark “put people before profit” by lowering their premiums.

It is absolutely astounding that the occupiers have the nerve to tell a successful and well respected company like Wellmark how to run its business. It is quite evident that the group has absolutely no knowledge as to how a business, such as Wellmark, operates. Instead they make an emotional demand that Wellmark abandon a business model that has worked successfully for a great many years just because the occupiers don’t think it is fair.

I have a proposal for the dirty dozen that marched on Wellmark. If you don’t like how Wellmark operates, change to a different company. If that doesn’t appeal to you, start your own insurance company. Organize it as a non-profit so that you can “put people before profit.” Compete with Wellmark and the other insurance companies doing business in Iowa. The quickest and surest way to affect change is through competition. If you can offer equal or better coverage than Wellmark for less they will be forced to change how they do business.

With that said, I don’t see it happening. We have now had several weeks to observe the group. One conclusion that has been easy to come to is that they are lazy. They don’t want to do the work, they want someone else to do it for them while they sit back and reap the rewards. I know this is harsh, but the story about their Wellmark march demonstrates this conclusion very clearly.

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New Feature on Iowa Defense Alliance

November 12, 2011 Leave a comment

With the race for the Republican Presidential nomination heating up, I have come to realize that finding news and commentary can sometimes be difficult and time consuming. There are a great many voters out there that simply do not have the time needed to conduct this search in order to vet the candidates. In attempt to help our readers become more knowledgeable and informed about the Republican Presidential candidates Iowa Defense Alliance has launched a new feature to the blog.

If you will avert your eyes to the right hand side of the page you will see a heading titled Pages. Underneath this header you will see, in alphabetical order,  a list of eight Republican Presidential candidates. To find the information and commentary that we have gathered you must simply click on the desired candidate’s name which will take you to a page with numerous links on it. These links will then take you to a multitude of news and commentary articles about the candidate you have chosen. Naturally we cannot and will not be able to catch all the stories and opinions out there, so if you have an article you would like us to link to simply post it in the comment section below or you can send it to me at abregarjr@hotmail.com.

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GOP Presidential Field: Scapegoating Nevada

October 18, 2011 Leave a comment

It has been more than one year since the Republican National Committee and the Democratic Committee came together in a bipartisan fashion to adopt updated rules governing the nomination process. This was done in an effort to prevent the kind of confusion and chaos that occurred after Florida and Michigan moved their primaries into January in 2008. The modified rules would in effect give provide for the punishment of any states that would attempt to change their primary or caucus dates in opposition to the approved rules. It was naturally assumed that this rule change would prevent a repeat of 2008.

All was going smoothly until Florida decided to buck the rules and moved their primary date to January 31st. This in turn prompted South Carolina to move their primary date to January 21st which in turn led Nevada to pick January 14th for their caucus date. This prompted to the state of New Hampshire to contemplate picking and early December date for their primary and Iowa to select January 3rd for its caucus date.

As you can see, Florida’s violation RNC rules have created a domino effect on the early part of the 2012 nomination process. When the State of Florida decided to blatantly flout the rules of the nominating process they created a chaotic and uncertain atmosphere that has spread across the country. Clearly Florida should be subject to punishment from not just the RNC for its rules violations, but the candidates themselves can and should boycott the state to affirm their support for the integrity of the nominating process.

However this does not seem to be the case. Instead there seems to be a movement shaping up within the GOP field to scapegoat Nevada. There is a clear desire to place the blame on one individual state for the chaos and confusion that have been wrought on the nomination process, but that blame is being placed upon the victim. It is like blaming the rape victim for getting raped. Several GOP Presidential hopefuls have already spoken up with a vow to boycott the Nevada contest. In fact Herman Cain, Rick Santorum, Michelle Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, and Jon Huntsman have all vowed to boycott the Nevada contest.

Like I said these boycott’s are the equivalent of the blaming the victim for being the victim. If the Presidential candidates wanted to preserve the integrity of the nominating process they would absolutely boycott the State of Florida’s contest. It was the date change in Florida that initiated this chaotic snowball that we are now experiencing. Florida was and is the origin. If they ant to punish someone, punish Florida.

However, I don’t really see that happening because there are just too many votes in Florida for the candidates to ignore. And this really shows the candidates in a different light. Do they really want to preserve the nominating process or are they just attempting to pander and appear tough. And the RNC has been all too quiet on the issue as well. If the RNC will not hold states accountable to the rules, then what good are they? If the RNC refuses to punish Florida you will see an unraveling of the nominating process. If you think the chaos that we are feeling now is bad, wait until the other states catch a whiff of the stuff at the RNC.

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Occupy DSM: Intentionally Confrontational?

October 14, 2011 4 Comments

David Goodner, one of the Occupy Des Moines protesters arrested last Sunday who seems to be intent on a repeat performance.

There is a new twist in the continuing saga of the Occupy DSM protests today. This morning the organizers of the Occupy DSM protests had their application to renew their permit to stay in the park they have been occupying has been denied. According to the Iowa Department of Administrative Services the permit was denied because the state has had the practice of limiting overnight stays to just three nights. This means that if the protesters ignore the 11 P.M. curfew they will once again be subject to arrest as well as criminal charges.

The uproar that has resulted from this decision has been entirely predictable. One of the chief agitators at the moment is David Goodner from Iowa Citizen’s for Community Improvement. This group has been well documented as a confrontational organization that will resort to disruption and chaos in an attempt to push their point of view. It was this group that heckled Presidential Candidate Mitt Romney during the Iowa State Fair in August. According to the Des Moines Register Mr. Goodner is attempting to claim that because the State denied the renewal of the permit that the State is suppressing their freedom of speech.

I cannot stress this strong enough. The State of Iowa is not attempting to limit the protesters ability to protest. The State of Iowa is not attempting to limit the protesters 1st Amendment rights. There is, however, someone that is working to limit the protesters right to protest, the protesters themselves. That’s right; the only one that is working to limit their ability to protest is the protesters themselves. They have rigidly stood by their demands to protest in that particular park. It seems to be that the protesters themselves feel that they are above the law. They continuously espouse the belief that they have a right to violate the curfew law governing that park because they want to protest there. By continuing to be wavering in this demand the biggest hindrance to their ability protest is themselves.

I find it simply astonishing that a group that has supposedly assembled to protest and attempt to affect change has acted so irrationally. This begs the question, if their message is so important that they have to be able to protest around the clock, why in the world are they so rigid in their protests location? And while I do not have an answer to this question, I can develop a few assumptions. Perhaps the some of the protesters are simply there to create a confrontation. Perhaps someone like David Goodner wants to try to get arrested in an attempt to become seen as a “leader” in this movement. Or it could be that the protesters are so blinded by their hatred for Governor Branstad that they are forcing a potential confrontation in an effort to embarrass him. Then again they could simply not realize that they do have options.

I have learned that the Des Moines Mayor Frank Cownie has extended an invitation to the Occupy DSM protesters to utilize a city park to the east of the State Capital with a seven day permit. Personally I don’t think that these protesters will accept the invitation. They have the ability to protest at the State Capital, just not in the location that they want. Furthermore, there will be no line of sight between them and the State Capital officially neutering their protest. Additionally, as I said before, I believe that a number of the protesters are intent on provoking a confrontation with the Iowa State Patrol. No, I think that the use of the city park will be refused and that the end result will be the arrest of two to three dozen protesters. I could be wrong of course. We will find out at 11 P.M.

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Occupy DSM Arrests: Rhetoric vs. Reality

October 11, 2011 3 Comments

As I am sure you are by now aware, thirty-two protesters were arrested last night at the Occupy Iowa protest at the Iowa State Capital. Now, in an attempt to deflect criticism, participants and supporters of the rally are attempting to claim victimhood. They are attempting to control the dialog to make it appear as if they had been wronged by a bullish government intent on silencing their voice. Fortunately there are those of us that are rational enough to see what truly happened are and are willing to shed light on the subject.

Last night shortly after the events unfolded The Des Moines Register’s Regina Zilbermints reported that after repeated warnings to vacate the park by 11P.M the Iowa State Patrol began arresting the assembled protesters. According to Zilbermints several of the protesters intentionally resisted arrest by linking arms and sitting down; thus forcing the Troopers to carry many of the protesters to the awaiting vehicles.

In the hours since the chaotic turn of events occurred the protesters and their supporters have come up with all sorts of excuses for what happened last night. Some, such as the Marion County Iowa Democrats, have attempted to claim that the protesters did not know that the park was closed after 11 P.M. I have since learned that this is an entirely fictitious statement based upon this post that I found on the Des Moines Registers Facebook page. Just before 6 P.M. the protesters commented that they expected the Iowa State Patrol to kick them out at 11 P.M. when the park closes.

Facebook Screenshot

In spite of the rhetoric that we are hearing, no one’s Constitutional rights were violated last night. The protesters that were arrested were provided ample time to, five hours to be exact, to relocate their protest to another spot. The thirty-two protesters that were arrested could have simply done as their fellow protesters did and move across the street. Instead they intentionally disregarded a lawful order from multiple Iowa State Patrol officers in accordance with the law. And due to their arrogance they were arrested. I hope that they will come to understand the consequences of their actions, but somehow I doubt that they will.

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Mainstream Media: Willful Ignorance

August 17, 2011 Leave a comment

It has long been asserted that there is a bias among a large portion of the mainstream media. Just this past spring I brought you some pictures and videos from across the country where union members and their supporters not only held up their vile signs that spewed their own particular brand of toxic venom, but I also brought you videos that showed those same union members and supporters attacking those that held opposing viewpoints. And as I pointed to these events, the mainstream media repeatedly and blatantly ignored the rising tide of violence from the left side of the political spectrum.

The left leaning media instead attempted to denigrate members of the Tea Party and the courageous politicians that support them. They took former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin to task for what they construed as overheated rhetoric that they claimed was the motivation behind the attempted assassination of Arizona Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords. Never mind the fact that the gunman, Jared Loughner, listed the Communist Manifesto and Mein Kampf as two of his favorite books. Sure sounds like conservative Tea Partier to me. Indeed it seems that the left leaning media in the US is always looking for something that they can blame on the right without regard to the facts of the matter.

And it appears that the left leaning media is still at it. Take the comments in a report by Chuck Todd on the Today Show this morning. The title of the report was “The Politics of Anger: Tea Party Tactics Change Race for President.” They seemed to take offense to the fact that anyone could possibly have a difference of opinion with the President. And to assert that Ryan Rhodes, the Tea Party leader that had the unique opportunity to question President Obama, was confrontational in any way was disingenuous at best. Both Rhodes and Stacey Rogers were entirely polite and courteous to the President. But the media is attempting to make out like they were physical threats to the President.

And while the media seems to have no problem talking about perceived threats from Tea Party members, you will most likely not hear them report on the real threats from the other side. Take for instance the case of a Toledo, OH electrical contractor that has been harassed for years by union thugs. Unfortunately for John King the harassment that he has received from the union thugs in the Toledo area recently turned violent. According to reports, Mr. King stepped outside of his home when he noticed his security light on. When he stepped outside a man that had been in the process of vandalizing Mr. King’s truck fire a shot at him. Mr. King was hit, but thankfully his wounds were not life threatening.  To the best of my knowledge the assailant has yet to be apprehended, but it is clear that this was perpetrated by a union thug.

I am under no illusion that the media will change it’s biased ways anytime in the near future. That is why I do what I do; I want to make sure that our side is always represented. And while we may not have near the audience that NBC or CBS has, you can rest assured we will always be honest.

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The Iowa Straw Poll: A tale of success and failure

August 15, 2011 4 Comments

This past Saturday I had the opportunity to attend the Republican Party of Iowa’s Ames Straw Poll. For those of you that were unable to attend you missed out on an incredible spectacle that is an important step in the Presidential nomination process. You missed the opportunity to mingle with the various Republican Presidential candidates. You missed the opportunity to learn what a wide variety of conservative organizations were up to. And most of all you missed the opportunity to help shape the debate in the election process. And once the dust had settled there it was clear those that had successes and those that had disappointments.

First off, for those of you that do not understand the significance of a non-binding straw poll I would like to explain the significance. The significance of the Ames Straw Poll is that it is the first real test of the various campaigns organizational strength. Basically it tests how well a campaign can motivate it’s supporters to come out and spend the day in Ames to vote for them. At the end of the day it is up to the campaign’s to determine how well they accomplished that task and plan accordingly. Now without further ado I would like to give you my thoughts on the outcome of the 2011 Ames Straw Poll.

Michelle Bachmann – 4,823 votes

Congresswoman Michelle Bachmann emerged from the Ames Straw Poll as the victor. Last Saturday Congresswoman Bachmann was able to lay claim to the mantle of the first woman to win the RPI Straw Poll. This in and of itself is a major success for Team Bachmann, more so considering that it happened in a state that has never elected a woman to serve in the federal government. Despite this symbolic victory it cannot be overlooked that Congresswoman Bachmann just barely managed to hold off Texas Congressman Ron Paul. Most Republican circles began to write off the Texan after the horrid debate performance he had on Thursday evening. One reason for this apparent disappointment could stem from the fact that in the weeks leading up to the Straw Poll many media outlets began to launch a constant stream of attacks designed to diminish her performance. And in spite of these attacks she managed to pull off the win.

Ron Paul – 4671 votes

I would categorize Congressman Ron Paul’s performance at the Straw Poll as a success. As I mentioned above, many Republicans that I spoke with prior to between Thursday night and Saturday morning expected his performance to drop after his performance in the Fox News debate. Despite this performance I still fail to see Congressman Paul winning enough support to emerge from the Iowa Caucus victorious. The reason that I believe this is his stance on foreign policy. It remains to be seen if American foreign policy was the cause of the irrational hatred felt by many Muslims toward the United States. However, we do not have the luxury of traveling back in time to change the past. We must live in reality, the here and now. We cannot allow attacks upon our nation to go unanswered. And once we were engaged in Afghanistan and Iraq we could not withdraw our troops until their nations were once again stable, to do otherwise would be irresponsible. And as for Iran, it is the only nation in the world that has publicly stated that their ultimate goal was to destroy another nation. If we were to allow Iran to acquire nuclear weapons it would have disastrous consequences for every other nation in the world. And after Congressman Paul publicly announced otherwise, it marginalized him as viable candidate in my opinion. I am confident that very few Iowans’ subscribe to Congressman Paul’s idea of foreign policy.

Tim Pawlenty – 2,293 votes

I would say that the biggest disappointment of the day belonged to Team Pawlenty. Former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty was banking on a great finish in the Ames Straw Poll that never materialized. Governor Pawlenty’s biggest impediment in the race was his lack of excitement.  He just couldn’t fire up the voters the way that Ron Paul and Michelle Bachmann could. As a result of his disappointing finish on Saturday, Governor Pawlenty made an announcement that he was dropping out of the race on Sunday. The expertise and wisdom that Governor Pawlenty brought to the race will be missed, but the Ames Straw Poll succeeded in helping Iowans to vet the Presidential candidates.

Rick Santorum – 1,657 votes

One of the biggest success stories from Saturday’s Straw poll was the emergence of Rick Santorum. Last week I was one of the few commentators to predict that the former Senator from Pennsylvania would jump up and surprise some people at the Straw Poll. And while I did expect him to fare better than Governor Pawlenty, I wasn’t off by much. The reason that I consider fourth place a success for Santorum is because he finished above many candidates that have been in the race longer. The fact that Santorum was able to fire up almost seventeen hundred votes in just a couple of months is a testament to his ability to campaign. I look forward to the next six months as we get closer and closer to the 2012 caucuses. I think that we may see another rise similar to the one Governor Mike Huckabee had post 2007 Straw Poll.

Herman Cain – 1,456 votes

I would also characterize Herman Cain’s performance at the Straw Poll as a success. In my prediction last week I thought that Cain could surprise Iowa Republicans, even though I thought it was unlikely. With his fifth place finish the former Godfathers Pizza CEO has proven to be a tenacious campaigner with the drive to win. However, he still finished in fifth place after having campaigned for longer than most candidates. Perhaps his refusal to answer surveys has held him back. Many Iowans, myself included, have to wonder why he would avoid this free advertisement. Unless it is because he doesn’t want to go on the record in his own handwriting.

Rick Perry – 718 votes

The biggest surprise to me was the fact that Texas Governor Rick Perry who came in sixth with 718 votes. To say that this wasn’t a success would be utter madness. Governor Perry was successful beyond my wildest imaginations. At the same time I find it disappointing that 718 Iowans voted for a candidate that had never campaigned within the state. I find it disappointing that 718 Iowans voted for a candidate that they could know little about. To be perfectly honest I cannot fathom any reason for Governor Perry to finish this high without any campaigning at all. Still I have the nagging feeling that when Iowans begin to actually get to know him, that his campaign will fall back to earth.

Mitt Romney – 567 votes

I know that the defending Straw Poll victor, Mitt Romney, decided not to participate in the 2011 version but I still expected him to do better than Texas Governor Rick Perry. At least Romney has done some minimal campaigning within the state. Furthermore, Romney did campaign extensively in the state during the last caucus. To have him fall so far was hard to imagine. I would say that this does not bode well for Team Romney as we get closer to the 2012 caucus. To say that his performance was disappointing would be an understatement.

Newt Gingrich – 385 votes

I would say that former Speaker of the US House Newt Gingrich suffered neither successful nor a disappointing Straw Poll, although it is still astounding that Rick Perry finished better than Gingrich. Instead, I believe that Gingrich managed to tread water in spite of refusing to participate in the event. We know that he was on the ground in Ames on Saturday, so it is probably because of a lack of campaign funds that held him back from participating in the event.

Jon Huntsman – 69 votes

To be perfectly honest with you, I did not expect Huntsman to fare this well. The man has openly dissed the Iowa Caucus and the Straw Poll. That sixty-nine Iowans voted for him simply astounds me. Due to this I would without hesitation that Huntsman experienced a success at the Straw Poll.

Thaddeus McCotter – 35 votes

You might be asking just who McCotter is. Well the best way to describe him is probably as someone that wanted to be able to put candidate for President on his resume when he leaves Congress. If you had been at the straw poll you would have noticed that his tent area had very few people in attendance. In all honesty I was surprised he received as many votes as he did. It was definitely a disappointing day for McCotter.

There you have it, my take on the results of the 2011 Iowa Straw Poll. I am sure that most of you will have your own opinions as to the aftermath, and you are entitled to them. That is the beauty of our great nation.

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Ron Paul: “Santorum is Still a Loser”

August 13, 2011 4 Comments

Here in Iowa expect a lot from potential Presidential candidates. We expect them to friendly, thoughtful, and intelligent; just to name a few. Iowans do not tend to respond well to candidates that take on a mean streak. We just do not like it when a candidate engages in personal attacks on their opponents. Because of this I was thoroughly stunned when I found a blog post on Facebook published by one of the many candidates running for the GOP nomination launched a personal attack on one of his opponent.

Earlier this evening the campaign of Texas Congressman Ron Paul published a blog post declaring Congressman Paul the winner of Thursday nights Fox News Debate. And while I would question that assertion it was the short little statement that accompanied it for absolutely no reason that drew my attention. The statement really drew my scrutiny was when Congressman Paul’s campaign asserted that former Pennsylvania Senator and current GOP Presidential Candidate Rick Santorum was “still a loser.”

Then I got to thinking that at last night’s Fox News Debate Senator Santorum excoriated Congressman Paul on the 10th a question about Iran. The exchange between Senator Santorum and Congressman Paul worked in Senator Santorum’s favor by making Congressman Paul to seem foolish and shortsighted. Here is the video of that exchange.

 

 

With the personal attack on Senator Santorum being perpetrated less than twenty four hours after the end of the debate one has to wonder if Congressman Paul is a little thin skinned. Could the fact that Senator Santorum made Congressman Paul look like a fool in a nationally televised debate be the rationale behind the Paul campaigns decision to launch into an unwarranted personal attack. Rest assured that I will attempt to find out tomorrow when I attend the Iowa Straw Poll.

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Straw Poll Predictions

August 11, 2011 2 Comments

While I may have been notably absent from the political blogosphere for the last few months I have not neglected to attend the variety of political events that have occurred in the run up to 2011 Republican Party of Iowa Ames Straw Poll. As the summer progressed the candidates vying for the Republican nomination to challenge President Obama have been making the rounds of Iowa in a determined attempt to drum up support for their candidacy.

Unlike four years ago when I attended my first Straw Poll, I am not going in with a candidate already selected. Instead I find myself in the curious position of neutrality toward the candidates. In my honest opinion all of the candidates scheduled to be in attendance have some great attributes in their favor. At the same time they all have some negatives working against them as well. So this year I will walk into the Ames Straw Poll having to as yet make a decision as to who I intend to support. That doesn’t mean that I do not have an opinion as to how each of the candidates will perform once the ballots are tallied. And now without further ado, here are my predictions as to how the poll will shake out.

I believe that Minnesota Congresswoman Michelle Bachmann will the one candidate that will come out on top on Saturday. I have attended her events and seen an excitement amongst her supporters that I haven’t seen since Mike Huckabee last campaigned in Iowa prior to the 2008 Iowa Caucus. And while Congresswoman Bachmann does have some baggage I do not believe that it will be enough to hold her back.

I firmly believe that Congressman Ron Paul will come in a close second. Congressman Paul was right on almost every count on America’s fiscal policy 4 years ago and that has won him increasing support. However he has several issues that will draw down his potential support. Among them is his continued policy of inserting pork into bills even though he votes against them. Another significant negative that I believe is keeping him from winning the number 1 spot at the Straw Poll is his fanatical fringe of supporters. These are the supporters that are willing to get into your face and shout you down as you attempt to politely debate them on the issues. I saw this fanatical fringe first hand at the 2008 Straw Poll when several of the fringe lined the entry way to the event. One of the fringe got in the face of one of my companions despite being politely rebuked. If Congressman Paul were to somehow manage to gain control of these dedicate, if somewhat socially challenged individuals I believe that he may have had a stronger shot at winning the poll.

Now I am going to surprise some people with my next prediction. In third place I don’t see what some others see. I don’t see former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty drawing enough votes to take third. I don’t see the defending Straw Poll winner, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney pulling it off either. Instead I see a surprise in the wings much along the same line as Governor Huckabee’s surprising win four years ago. I am going out on a limb to predict that former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum will pull of a third place finish on Saturday. Despite the media’s tacit dismissal of Senator Santorum’s presidential campaign he has steadily built upon his solid social conservative credentials and his lengthy track record in the US Senate to build a support base in much the same way that Governor Huckabee did. He hasn’t done it by taking part in a lot of GOP party fundraisers. Instead he has traveled across the state going from one house party to another speaking directly to the voters in Iowa. While he does have the albatross of losing his seat in the US Senate, I don’t think that it will hold him back all that much.

Predicting the candidate that will come in fourth place on Saturday was really the toughest prediction that I have made thus far. This really was a toss up between two candidates in my honest opinion. This slot could have gone to either defending Straw Poll winner Mitt Romney or former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty. After careful consideration I came to the prediction that Governor Pawlenty would be the one to take fourth place. The major difference here is that Governor Pawlenty has been tirelessly crisscrossing the state in a concerted attempt to win the support of Iowan’s. Despite his relentless campaigning I don’t believe that he will be able to inspire enough support for him to place higher in the Straw Poll.

As I am sure that you can surmise, I believe that Mitt Romney will come in fifth in Saturday’s Straw Poll. It is not that I believe that he could not do better than this. It is more that I believe that most Iowan’s attending Saturday’s event will take offense to the fact that Romney has not really campaigned in Iowa this time around. Furthermore there are a large number of Iowa Republicans that will not vote for Mitt Romney under any circumstances. So this coupled with his lack of a campaign presence in Iowa will hinder his chances this weekend.

In my honest opinion positions six through nine are too fluid to really predict. However with that said, anyone of these candidates could provide a surprise on Saturday. For instance former Godfathers Pizza CEO Hermann Cain’s campaign started out with a bang. He picked up rapid support due to his status as the outsider, the non-politician candidate. However his campaign quickly lost steam when it began to hemorrhage staffers. Today Cain’s campaign is just a shell of its former self. Another candidate that held promise early in the campaign season was former Speaker of the US House of Representatives Newt Gingrich. However after some of his staff left over differences in opinion on campaign strategy the Gingrich campaign quickly lost steam. Michigan Congressman Thadeus McCotter will be a non-entity on Saturday due to the fact that he really hasn’t been campaigning. No one in Iowa really knows much about him and I don’t believe that he will have the time to rectify this problem. Another candidate that I believe will be a non-entity at the Straw Poll will be Jon Huntsman due to the fact that he has decided to bypass Iowa.

With a few days remaining until the Iowa Straw Poll the political situation is volatile. Anyone of these candidates can break their campaign with some entirely avoidable gaffe. And at the same time a candidate has the ability to elevate their status through some shrewd and effective campaign strategy. Essentially, until the ballots are cast on Saturday the outcome of the Straw Poll is entirely fluid. But it is fun to make predictions isn’t it.

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